A Little Electoral Prediction

November 3rd, 2012 | by Sqotty |

I ran across a piece on Breitbart’s Big Government that noted an interesting historical point: The Republican candidate for president has won the election every time it has fallen on November 6th since the election date was standardized in 1845. The Trend began with Lincoln in 1860, followed by Harrison, McKinley, Hoover, Eisenhower and Reagan. This year the election falls on November 6th, with a heated contest between Obama and Romney.

What is interesting to note is that when you dig up all of the elections from 1848 through today, only the November 6th election date has ever had a one party winning streak. all of the other dates (November 2nd through 8th) tend to be evenly split, but still show a distinct pattern for most dates.

Nov 2 dem (Pierce) gop (Garfield) gop (Harding) dem (Truman) dem (Carter) gop (Dubya)
Nov 3 gop (Grant) gop (McKinley) gop (Taft) dem (FDR) dem (LBJ) dem (Clinton)
Nov 4 dem (Buchanon) dem (Cleveland) gop (Cooledge) gop (Eisenhower) gop (Reagan) dem (Obama)
Nov 5 gop (Grant) dem (Wilson) dem (FDR) gop (Nixon) dem (Clinton)  
Nov 6 gop (Lincoln) gop (Harrison) gop (McKinley) gop (Hoover) gop (IKE) gop (Reagan)
Nov 7 whig (Taylor) gop (Hayes) dem (Wilson) dem (FDR) gop (Nixon) gop (Dubya)
Nov 8 gop (Lincoln) dem (Cleveland) gop (Teddy Roosevelt) dem (FDR) dem (JFK) gop (GHW Bush)

Based on the pattern, I have come up with a set of predictions for the next run of election dates:

Nov 2, 2032 gop
Nov 3, 2020 gop
Nov 4, 2036 dem
Nov 5, 2024 dem
Nov 6, 2012 gop
Nov 7, 2028 dem
Nov 8, 2016 gop

Will any of these predictions come true? Only time will tell. But I do hope I am right for this year.


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