Global Warming: Natural Causes #6
I read with great interest an opinion piece in RIAN by Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin called "A cold Spell Soon to Replace Global Warming." It opens with "Stock up on fur coats and felt boots!" and based on Dr. Sorokhtin's analysis, and what this year's winter is like thus far, I'd say that is good advice.
Sorokhtin's piece focuses on the science behind the current warming trend and ongoing climate change, especially the solar cycle and the question of CO2. He also points out that the current warming trend began in the 17th century, predating the Industrial Revolution. It's a darn good piece out of Russia.
In his piece he writes:
The real reasons for climate changes are uneven solar radiation, terrestrial precession (that is, axis gyration), instability of oceanic currents, regular salinity fluctuations of the Arctic Ocean surface waters, etc. There is another, principal reason-solar activity and luminosity. The greater they are the warmer is our climate.
Much of this is covered in other papers and books, specifically (my favorite) Unstoppable Global Warming (Avery and Singer). Not sure why he missed variations in the Earth's orbit (According to Singer and Avery, it has its own VERY long cycle), but that is a minor nitpick, and falls neatly into the "etcetera" category. The salinity fluctuations are, however, a new one for me. It would be worth learning more about it. Since he is attached to the Oceanography Institute (Russia), this falls well into his area of expertise.
Astrophysics knows two solar activity cycles, of 11 and 200 years. Both are caused by changes in the radius and area of the irradiating solar surface. The latest data, obtained by Habibullah Abdusamatov, head of the Pulkovo Observatory space research laboratory, say that Earth has passed the peak of its warmer period, and a fairly cold spell will set in quite soon, by 2012. Real cold will come when solar activity reaches its minimum, by 2041, and will last for 50-60 years or even longer.
The solar activity he is referring to is the sun spot activity cycles which impacts the amount of energy the sun gives off. The more sun spots, the greater solar activity is, the more luminosity hits the Earth. Fewer sun spots results in less activity. This also has a direct relation to the solar wind which influences the amount of cosmic rays hitting the Earth.
This is my point, which environmentalists hotly dispute as they cling to the hothouse theory. As we know, hothouse gases, in particular, nitrogen peroxide, warm up the atmosphere by keeping heat close to the ground. Advanced in the late 19th century by Svante A. Arrhenius, a Swedish physical chemist and Nobel Prize winner, this theory is taken for granted to this day and has not undergone any serious check.
I am not familiar with Svante, although it rings a bell in the back of my mind. Sorokhtin then compares the environmentalists that insist that the current warming trend is a result of man-caused pollution being like jousting with windmill's in a Quixotic fashion. What a wonderful analogy he came up with!
He goes on to point out the many flaws with the theory that it is man-generated hothouse gases causing the warming trend rather than natural forces. Read the entire piece for the full scope.
He is right on the money and in agreement with other works I have read by Avery, Singer, Michaels, Christi, and others.
It also corroborates the current trending being experienced this winter as it is the first one in my seven years in Minnesota that we have had snow on the ground for the entire month of December (about eight inches, currently) and the temperatures have cracked 32 degrees for only a few hours once since December 1st. In 2004, here in Minnesota, we were experiencing little snowfall and temps well into the 50s after Christmas
I guess Sorokhtin is one more scientist coming out of the closet and spoiling the so-called "consensus" on global warming science.
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